本文汇总了经济学国际顶级期刊《American Economic Review》、《Quarterly Journal of Economics》、《Journal of Political Economy》、《The Review of Economic Studies》和《Econometrica》近期即将发表的论文，提供经济学研究领域最新学术动态。
01. New Deal, New Patriots: How 1930s Government Spending Boosted Patriotism During WWII
Posted on: 30 June 2022
Abstract: We demonstrate an important complementarity between patriotism and public-good provision. After 1933, the New Deal led to an unprecedented expansion of the US federal government’s role. Those who benefited from social spending were markedly more patriotic during WWII: they bought more war bonds, volunteered more, and, as soldiers, won more medals. This pattern was new—WWI volunteering did not show the same geography of patriotism. We match military service records with the 1940 census to show that this pattern holds at the individual level. Using geographical variation, we exploit two instruments to suggest that the effect is causal: droughts and congressional committee representation predict more New Deal agricultural support, as well as bond buying, volunteering, and medals.
摘要：我们展示了爱国主义和公益提供之间的重要互补性。1933年后，新政导致美国联邦政府的作用空前扩大。那些从社会支出中受益的人在二战期间明显更加爱国：他们购买了更多的战争债券，更多的志愿服务，并且作为士兵获得了更多的奖牌。这种模式是新的——第一次世界大战志愿服务并没有表现出同样的爱国主义地理。我们将兵役记录与 1940 年的人口普查相匹配，以表明这种模式在个人层面上也存在。利用地理差异，我们利用两种工具来表明这种影响是因果关系：干旱和国会委员会代表预测更多的新政农业支持，以及债券购买、志愿服务和奖牌。
02. Economic Agents as Imperfect Problem Solvers
Posted on: 1 July 2022
Abstract: We develop a novel bounded rationality model of imperfect reasoning as the interaction between automatic (System 1) and analytical (System 2) thinking. In doing so, we formalize the empirical consensus of cognitive psychology using a structural, constrained-optimal economic framework of mental information acquisition about the unknown optimal policy function. A key result is that agents reason less (more) when facing usual (unusual) states of the world, producing state- and history-dependent behavior. Our application is an otherwise standard incomplete markets model with no a priori behavioral biases. The ergodic distribution of actions and beliefs is characterized by endogenous learning traps, where locally stable state dynamics generate familiar regions of the state space within which behavior appears to follow memory-based heuristics. This results in endogenous behavioral biases that have many empirically desirable properties: the marginal propensity to consume is high even for unconstrained agents, hand-to-mouth status is more frequent and persistent, and there is more wealth inequality than in the standard model.
摘要：我们开发了一种新的不完美推理的有限理性模型，作为自动（系统 1）和分析（系统 2）思维之间的相互作用。在这样做的过程中，我们使用关于未知最优策略函数的心理信息获取的结构性、约束最优经济框架来形式化认知心理学的经验共识。一个关键结果是，当面对世界的通常（不寻常）状态时，代理会更少（更多）推理，从而产生依赖于状态和历史的行为。我们的应用程序是一个标准的不完全市场模型，没有先验行为偏差。行动和信念的遍历分布以内生学习陷阱为特征，其中局部稳定状态动态生成熟悉的状态空间区域，其中行为似乎遵循基于记忆的启发式方法。这导致了具有许多经验上理想特性的内生行为偏差：即使对于不受约束的代理人，边际消费倾向也很高，手到嘴的状态更加频繁和持久，财富不平等比标准模型中的更多。
01. Preferences and Performance in Simultaneous First-Price Auctions: A Structural Analysis
Posted on: 4 July 2022
Abstract: Motivated by the prevalence of simultaneous bidding across a wide range of auction markets, we develop and estimate a model of strategic interaction in simultaneous first-price auctions when objects are heterogeneous and bidders have nonadditive preferences over combinations. We establish non-parametric identification of primitives in this model under standard exclusion restrictions, providing a basis for both estimation and testing of preferences over combinations. We then apply our model to data on Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) highway procurement auctions, quantifying the magnitude of cost synergies and evaluating the performance of the simultaneous first-price mechanism in the MDOT marketplace.
摘要：在广泛的拍卖市场普遍存在同时竞标的推动下，我们开发并估计了一个在同时第一价格拍卖中的战略交互模型，当对象是异构的并且竞标者对组合具有非加性偏好时。我们在标准排除限制下建立了该模型中基元的非参数识别，为组合偏好的估计和测试提供了基础。然后，我们将我们的模型应用于密歇根州交通部 (MDOT) 公路采购拍卖的数据，量化成本协同效应的幅度并评估 MDOT 市场中同步第一价格机制的性能。
01. Sources of Wage Growth
Posted on: 1 July 2022
Abstract: This paper investigates the sources of wage growth over the life cycle, where individuals have the possibility to acquire vocational training at the start of their career. Wage growth is determined by sectoral and firm mobility, unobserved abil- ity and the accumulation of human capital. Workers may move between two oc- cupational sectors that require cognitive-abstract (CA) and routine-manual (RM) skills, and job mobility is induced by non-pecuniary job attributes and persistent firm-worker productivity matches. Estimating this model using longitudinal ad- ministrative data over three decades, we show that RM skills are a key driver of early wage growth while CA skills become important later on. Moreover, job amenities are an important determinant of mobility decisions. Vocational training has long term effects on career outcomes, affecting the type and quality of matches, with substantial internal rates of return both to the individual as well as society.
摘要：本文调查了整个生命周期中工资增长的来源，个人有可能在职业生涯开始时获得职业培训。工资增长取决于部门和企业的流动性、未观察到的能力和人力资本的积累。工人可能会在需要认知抽象 (CA) 和日常手工 (RM) 技能的两个职业部门之间流动，并且工作流动性是由非金钱工作属性和持续的公司-工人生产力匹配引起的。使用超过 30 年的纵向行政数据估计该模型，我们表明 RM 技能是早期工资增长的关键驱动力，而 CA 技能在以后变得重要。此外，工作便利性是出行决策的重要决定因素。职业培训对职业成果有长期影响，影响比赛的类型和质量，对个人和社会都有可观的内部回报率。